Tuesday, April 28, 2020

What Are COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rates?

On March 20th Governor Cuomo signed an executive order locking-down the State of NY in a historically unprecedented manner. To me it seemed absurd to take such drastic measures without knowing more about the coronavirus. How widespread was it? How dangerous was it? What was the "death-rate?" The news was posting all kinds of alarming IFRs, but they did note that an unknown % of cases were asymptomatic and so the actual IFR was "likely lower." Ok, but likely lower than 10% leaves a whole lot of room for speculation! In a sane society this lockdown would initiate a full-court press to try and find the answers to these questions, particularly how deadly the virus is.  While there was a lot of talk of testing, for some reason the testing protocols were set-up to target those who came to the hospital with symptoms.  This means we were not getting data on the asymptomatic cases and thus not getting any closer to answering the basic questions.

Now that the antibody testing has been done and the numbers have come in we know why they weren't interested in finding-out the IFR or asymptomatic rates: these numbers would have calmed the mass-hysteria that was the actual goal of the lockdowns. The entities intent on destroying the US economy and imposing totalitarian government control include the CDC, WHO, several State governments, many factions in the Federal government, and the silicon valley tech giants.  I suspect intelligence involvement given the international spread of the panic as well. All social media platforms have begun an intense campaign of banning and silencing anyone who tries to present the facts of the matter that might calm the panic and the rush to remake society into a "new normal" that would have made Orwell proud. So what does the data show about COVID's deadly properties?

NYS including NYC has the results of a 3,000 person antibody survey done at shopping centers, which is fairly random, but not perfect. The prevalence was 13% statewide and 21% in NYC, but the test has a bias towards false negatives so it's likely higher. IFR: 0.5%

LA County has survey 863 people using a marketing research firm to randomize their results.  Again the test is weighted towards false negatives so the actual infection % is going to be higher. The rates of infection ranged from 7% of Blacks to 2.5% of Latinos.  Part of this disparity may be that Latinos are simply more resistant to the virus and don't need to develop antibodies to shake it off. IFR: 0.1-0.2%

In Germany an initial study of 1000 people in 400 households finds 15% antibody prevalence, enough for them to recommend easing the lockdown. IFR: 0.37%
A Danish study used 1,500 blood donors to find an infection rate of 23%, well on the way to herd immunity. This is a low estimate because blood donors tend to be healthier than the general population. IFR: 0.16%

This interesting article from Helinski, Denmark shows IFR of 0.13%.  The summary is worth quoting here because it pretty much says it all:

"The World Health Organization has spread fear of COVID-19 without knowing the actual circulation rate of the virus. I calculated the SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality rate (IFR) from antibody prevalence blood samples taken from donors in the Capital Region of Denmark in early April. According to my calculations, the IFR is 0.13%, making the virus approximately as dangerous as seasonal flu. This IFR figure helps explain the limited global public health impact of COVID-19. Population-based serology results, expected soon from Finland, Germany and the US, will either refute or confirm my result. I believe that WHO Assistant Director General Bruce Aylward made a major mistake in February, when he claimed, after coming back from Wuhan, that his team “did not see evidence that a large number of mild cases of the novel disease called Covid-19 are evading detection”. He also claimed that SARS-CoV-2 would be approximately as lethal as Spanish flu. I present in this paper irrefutable evidence of the extremely rapid, but undetected, spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. So fast has the spread been that it is likely that New York has already reached herd immunity, and that it is this, rather than the lockdown, which explains the recent abrupt end of the outbreak. The world’s economy must be reopened as soon as possible. The cure now appears to be unequivocally worse than the disease."

-Mikko Paunio, MD, MHS

Italy had done a very large survey, IFR: 0.5% I expect that NYC and Italy will be shown to reflect extremely poor mismanagement of patients since those numbers are heavy outliers. Both NYC doctors and Italian doctors have been blowing the whistle on the dangers of the early intubation strategy that was adopted in the midst of the media-driven hysteria. I don't know if anyone has sauce on this nurse who makes very serious claims about what is happening in NY, but given the lack of patient advocates in a strictly controlled ward and the fear that is being pushed onto the medical staff, I don't doubt it is a horror-show. It also can't help that Cuomo forced the nursing homes to intake COVID+ patients via Department of Health Directive on March 24th, who made up 25% of fatalities. Of course while he was seeding homes with highly contagious sick people we were forced to "shelter in place" to protect the elderly. Truly, one cannot make this shit up!

Johnson County Kentucky found 3.8% infected in a randomized survey. IFR: 0.1%

For a general round-up of all the available data John PA Ioannidis has calculated the data on death risks for age demographics with and without other illness. About as deadly as your daily commute or less.

And on and on and on... Most of these studies are being followed-up on, so we will get an even clearer picture of what a massive, historic, catastrophic disaster the lockdown fiasco has been.  But don't expect the media to report any of these follow-ups and capture the videos off YouTube before they get deleted.

[EDIT: SWAPPED "INFECTION FATALITY RATE' FOR "CASE FATALITY RATE"]

Sunday, April 19, 2020

My Guinea Pig bit me today.

My Guinea Pig bit me today.

I guess we've all been pretty stressed-out by everything. I got him to keep me sane during the insane lock-down, but now I suddenly don't know. I thought we had an understanding. I was holding him and cooing, but I guess he still isn't used to it and he nibbled me on the finger harder than usual, basically a bite.

I've been feeding him too much.  Every time I get bored and wander over to the fridge to see if there is something I forgot about he starts squeeking.  I generally give him some lettuce and we eat together, in our cages as I read about Cuomo deciding to give NYers experimental vaccines.  We are all Guinea Pigs now.

I leave his cage door open, but not too long because it scares him.  When I take him out and put him down he is cool for a minute, but then he starts going for the corners, the covers, whatever can make him feel safe again.  He is looking for another cage.

And why not? Haven't I always fed him? Doesn't he get everything he needs in there?  Little does Little Guinea know that I actually got him so I could have a breeding pair, in case times get really tight. When the world goes insane and decides to rely on the mercy of the government for food, it usually ends up very hungry. But for know our unemployment checks are coming in, our cages feel quite safe compared to the deadly and dangerous OUTSIDE.

After I put the Guinea Pig back I see some articles about people protesting the lockdowns, comments are calling them terrorists using biological weapons.  Maybe they are, maybe that is what is necessary to preserve our way of life.  Looking at the Phases they want to roll-out I doubt anything less than physical disobedience will be fruitful. A few nibbles are to be expected.

I am realizing that I've gone about "bonding" with Little Guinea all wrong. When I throw some hay in and a nice chunk of lettuce he kicks his feet around and throws the wood chips everywhere, a very cute spectacle.  But what I've perceived as harmless Guinea joy is really a boisterous ego-trip, though how anything so small and helpless could have ego is beyond me.  That's who we are too, our little thrashings probably just as amusing to our betters.

Yet I must also control myself now, to truly be superior to him.  I give him tiny slices of the romaine now, through the grate slowly so he can't pull it away under his box.  When he is sufficiently busy eating out of the Left hand my Right comes in through the door to stroke him gently and he coos. It's working! To my dismay he still panics when my hand comes to pick him up and he scrambles in terror away.  It's really my fault, I should have been putting the Right hand in first, for a few moments, then starting the feeding with the Left. I must become better at brainwashing Little Guinea into thinking I'm not a threat, if I want snuggles.

Perhaps that is the feeling I get when I see articles praising Biden (who has of course been "moved-Left" by Bernie Sanders) for hints that he might approve of Medicare-for-all, sandwiched in-between articles about Cuomo slashing spending on public assistance and more small businesses going under. There is something in my brain that can't think one hand is so innocent in feeding me, while the other hand comes for me again and again.  Are they not connected to the same body? All my previous experience in politics cannot imagine it: an alliance of socialism with the largest multinational corporations ever.  Yet both are moving in from the same viral crack in the door, both are enlarging their power beyond recent imagination's conception at the same time from the same excuses.  They have to keep us safe, it's for our own good right?

In chess when your opponent offers up his queen for your knight you know you have to be very suspicious of taking it, there has to be some trick and only a newb would accept the trade. Your opponent is seeing a turn or two ahead of you and knows he will actually be in a stronger place despite a point disadvantage. Thus what we witness around us today: total destruction of human capital, existing systems of profit and revenue generation uprooted. We have a hard time seeing the point, the benefit to those who are already at the top of the heap.  Nor would I expect it to be entirely clear, to know the exact stake any more than Little Guinea understands my actions. What I can see is that Left and Right don't have the same relevance they may once have had, the new stratification isn't yet clear.  Or perhaps it is and we just don't want to admit it to ourselves, that we are just as tribal and barbaric as our ancestors.  It is clear that the strategy of queen sacrifice is going to lead to a long chain of sacrifices, sometimes the chain of destruction practically clears the board until nothing is left except the absolute minimum pieces required to mate.

One must understand that the corporations themselves can be sacrificed to the underlying power structures composed of people in interlocking connection between the companies. Even though tough times are coming those at the top of the pyramid will eventually be able to buy up as much as they want of real-world assets at lower and lower prices, the deflation step. In my previous thinking I had went along with the view that real world capital was by nature a risky business and one of the main cause of economic declines since technology and changing supply-lines always result in a lot of it going to waste.  The inefficiency of physical capital investment is always a damper on spending and growth, even if it gets to quit low prices. Now though I am considering whether technology might be at a plateau for a while, making such investments better. How can I possibly know?  I'm not in the world where real money is spent.  In either case, paper assets have their own risk too, the dollar is not looking like the stellar world currency of old. Time to buy the world.

This won't happen for some time though, like the lettuce going through the grate the money is being sheeted-out fresh and sticky like crazy.  It's not going to be enough to save most small businesses, but it will keep us distracted from what's going on.  Meanwhile the prices will continue to drop on all the stuff that's worth owning. When the government money runs out we will sell all we had earned and the inflation part of the process starts.  Now the fresh money isn't as appealing to monopolistic vampires who have just cemented their control over all the markets, they can raise and raise the prices just as fast as the cash is injected. Their money will become worth less too, but all the debt that they've leveraged on their assets will become worthless -free money!

That's one way it could go. The government that is hopefully able to check these kinds of predatory schemes, seen over and over through history, has just declared it's absolute power over the individual.  It doesn't particularly matter why and one could argue it was necessary, but it has happened. With a government not kept in check by the power of the people, and often abetted indeed by the terrified ones, can we expect it to keep a check on the corporate power that is consolidating? I'm not sure that elections are going to mean anything at all in the "new normal" being prepared for us.

As I pick a few tiny morsels of lettuce out of the bag I'm discovering a new emotion in myself; annoyance... schadenfreude? Should the Guinea get that slightly larger piece or should I thinly slice from the romaine heart like before and deposit the slivers bit by bit? For the first time his hysterical shrieking is disturbing to me.  I shouldn't have to feel guilty about cutting his lettuce down, it's for his own good! At the same time I remember that nibble, for once an actual bite, and I cut the morels down smaller. I feel good inside.

Little Guinea has been teaching me about the world even as I'm conditioning him ("bonding" you might prefer) and he's been teaching me about myself.

Saturday, April 18, 2020

Jesse Morrell on the Fauci-Made Disaster

You have to have foresight and think this through rationally and logically, not hysterically with panic.

Look at the actual data of the virus - the death toll and the mortality rate, and see if that merits a global economic collapse and global depression. It doesn’t.

Think through the logical chain reaction of an economic shutdown.

First everyone stays home so people don’t go to work. Businesses get a month of no revenue and go bankrupt. After just a few days of loss of revenue big companies already had to do mass layoffs.

There won’t be jobs for people to return to if all the industries crash. Our government cannot bail out every industry in the country. Not to mention the loss of revenue counties, states, and the federal government will suffer from this.

50% of the country is employed by small businesses and even large companies are already doing mass layoffs. Norwegian Air laid off 90% of their staff. Businesses, small and large, go bankrupt. People don’t have jobs and can’t pay their mortgages.

Do you know what fractional reserve banking is? It means the money you think is in the bank isn’t there. They loaned it out and pay the withdrawals from the interest payments coming in.

What happens when banks don’t get their interest payments, they cannot pay their depositors and the banks fail.

Last month when the economy was great a bank failed. How many will fail when there is mass unemployment? If the whole nation isn’t working, ALL the banks will fail. That means everyone loses whatever they had in the bank.
That is why it’s called bank-rupt. It’s what happened in the Great Depression after the stock market crash.

That means you can’t feed your family. You can’t buy anything. All your cash is gone. Your bank card won’t work. It’s just whatever change you have in your pocket or cash tucked away.

But wait. The FDIC insured the nations depositors up to $250,000 an account. Yes, but just like the bank does fractional reserve banking, insurance does fractional reserve insurance.

The FDIC doesn’t have enough money to cover all the banks they insure. If everyone makes a claim, insurance companies go bankrupt.

Already, the reserve amount required by the Federal Reserve has dropped from 10% reserves down to 0%, meaning banks are not required right now to have any reserve to cover their depositors.

“the Board reduced reserve requirement ratios to zero percent effective March 26, 2020. This action eliminated reserve requirements for all depository institutions”

When a banks reserves hit only 9% in the past, the FDIC deemed it insolvent and shut it down. Now they can go down to 0%. This means the banks are either already collapsing or they see the collapse around the corner.

When the banks don't have enough money to cover their depositors, the FDIC will turn to the federal reserve to print more money. Can the tax payer bail out every depositor in the country???? Can you say hyperinflation and currency collapse? Look at what happened in Venezuela!

Currencies have collapsed under less severe circumstances than a nationwide economic shutdown!
 And an economic collapse is the perfect conditions for a socialist revolution - the government rebuilding the economy. They already have made the masses dependent on the government for their monthly income. If the country collapses, they will look to the government to fix it. They already talked about bailing out big industries in exchange for equity. And government ownership of the economy is communism.

But a global economic collapse is too big to even be bailed out by the tax payer. You think the economy will just bounce back?? It took them ten years to get out of the Great Depression. And they only had 24.9% unemployment! They are already talking 35% unemployment for America right now and it’s just the beginning if it doesn’t end soon.

Think worse than the Great Depression. Think greatest economic catastrophe in our nations history. Even the Great Depression didn’t shut down the economy of the entire nation.

We already saw a run on Wall Street. We saw a run on Walmart. And it’s just a matter of time before we see a run on the banks. That’s the real reason they are closing branches, limiting their hours, and limiting your withdrawal amount.

We already saw what happens to Walmart when people panic. Empty shelves. Hoarding causes scarcity and scarcity causes more hoarding. But that is just the beginning of the shortages. If you shut down 50% of our countries production, there will be massive shortages. Think massive starvation.

If you shut down 50% production, you also are shutting down 50% distribution, which means shortages of 50% consumption.

And the economy is so interconnected that one thing affects another until it’s not a ripple affect but a tsunami.

So the food industry stays open. But what about the plastic factories that service them? Or the cardboard factories? The economy is all interconnected.

Doctors can’t get to the hospital to save lives if their car breaks down, Uber was shut down, dealerships shut down, and mechanics shut down. Say the mechanics stay open but with everyone staying home, they go bankrupt anyways.

More people would die from the coming global economic collapse than the people who would die from the virus itself.

The cure is worse than the disease.

And the CDC wanted to shut down the economy of the entire nation until July August the earliest??? Are you insane? There won’t be a nation at that point.

You think small towns and small businesses can go 4-5 months without revenue. Businesses collapse after weeks of no revenue. 4-5 months and every business is bankrupt and every American unemployed. And that’s just America.

Following our bad example, now UK and India shutdown their economies. We are taking billions of people unemployed for a virus that right now has only claimed 20,000 lives worldwide. The flu alone claims 250,000 lives every single year but we don’t collapse the economy and plunge the world into global depression.

The economy is like a bicycle. Lots of moving parts. You need to keep it moving or it falls down. Go to slow and the ride is over. You can’t just pause the economy of a nation. This is reality. An economy is essential to a nation. An economy is not optional. You can’t just pause or stop an economy.

Fauci is an expert on viruses not the economy. He even said he is not thinking of the economy and that overreacting to this virus is the right thing to do. Wrong.

If you underreact you make the death toll higher than it needs to be. But if you overreact you cause global economic collapse and kill way more people.

You want to properly react to this virus. And since 99.3% of those infected would recover, 99% of those dying have preexisting conditions, and the death rate is very low for people under 50, and that is just the date from the confirmed cases with our limited testing, it means that those most at risk should practice social distancing to avoid exposure and the young and healthy with the least risk should get back to work and keep the economy from collapsing.

You can solve both the hospital crisis and the economic crisis at the same time. You don’t have to sacrifice the 1% for the 99% and you don’t have to sacrifice the 99% for the 1%. Trump is seeing both crisis and making plans accordingly.

By letting certain regions at low risk and certain ages at low risk back to work, President Trump would be saving countless lives by avoiding a global economic collapse and global depression that would result if this went on for months like shortsighted overkill germaphobe Fauci wants.

And when all the data finally comes in, and we confirm all the actual cases that include the majority that only had mild symptoms and nothing life threatening, it will show the mortality rate was actually really low, lower than we see now and lower than we first thought. I calculated it will be .1% given the 20,000 deaths right now, if the actual number of infected was 2,000,000. And .1% is the death rate of the flu.

Imagine that. Causing a global economic collapse and global depression over a virus that in the final analysis has a very low mortality rate, similar to the flu.

The CDC evidently did not think through the economic affects of their plan. They did not calculate the death toll a global depression would cause.

We are in a recession right now and if the government keep the economy down, that’s a depression. But we can shift gears and avoid the catastrophe by President Trump changing course.

To comfort and convince the public to go back to work, the CDC and White House needs to emphasis the actual known mortality rate, instead of the death toll. You can’t stop all deaths but the mortality rate will show that while this virus is highly contagious it is not highly deadly. Very few of those infected actually die. Collapsing the economy at this point makes no logical sense. It’s a bad plan and I’m glad Trump broke from Fauci on his stupid shortsighted 4-5 month shutdown. This isn’t a Hollywood movie. It’s real life with real consequences.

They should have a business death toll and job death toll on the news like they do for the virus. Listening to Fauci and shutting down the economy will go down in history as President Donald Trumps biggest mistake.

Again, The Federal Reserve estimated unemployment to hit 30%. The Secretary of the Treasury said unemployment will rise to 35%.

Do you know the unemployment during the Great Depression? 24.9%

But hey, that means that 75.1% had jobs, so the Great Depression wasn’t that bad, right? The economy is just money after all, right?

So with a population of 331 million people in America, what’s the number of unemployed at 35%? Do the math. It’s 116 million people unemployed. This is astronomical.

You know it took them ten years to finally come out of the Great Depression?

And do you know what caused the Great Depression? A stock market crash and then a banking collapse.

Businesses cannot handle months without revenue. They cannot even go weeks without revenue without bankruptcy. This shutdown needs to end in days. Days. Or else the economic problems will be too big for government to fix.

But we can just pretend that people don’t need jobs, businesses don’t need customers, and banks don’t need interest payments, if that makes you feel better

Hey you wanna go play some video games? Let’s see what’s new on Netflix.

Wake up America!

- Jesse Morrell, Open Air Outreach

Thursday, April 2, 2020

The Environmental Disaster of Environmentalism



It was a real dump I thought coming around into the backyard. That certain smell, that fine lousy dust that packs of strays somehow create. It was all too reminiscent of the yards I used to play in as kid on the South Side. I once got a case of ringworm so bad the doctor said it should have killed me already. So I over-applied the steroid ointment and ended-up with a major stretch mark on my inner thigh. When I asked if it would go away the doctor paused and said "In time." I guess he meant after my body decomposes because it's still there 30 years later. But I digress. 

This single-story double was on the West Side, different racial profile, same sort of poverty. An epic grape-vine had devoured it for years, destroying the roof and eaves while providing the back tenant with home-made wine. He was convinced that the landlord had killed it out of spite. I could see why he was leery of her intentions, he showed me a video of the water raining into a kiddie-pool she gave him for the living room. The sound musty have been unbearable, until it got a couple of inches deep. 

Contractors had done their shoddy best with the roofs and the eaves and so I went about applying cases of caulk and carving Great Stuff to fill the gaps, which actually looked pretty good smeared with a handful of caulk (cut the tube open in these cases, that nozzle aint gonna cut it). Luckily there is one part of my hand an inch below the pinky and down to the wrist that makes a straight smoothing edge if wet. It was my masterpiece in caulk by the time I was done.

We had to store our jackets in the truck, for fear of roaches coming out.  I never saw the inside of the front apartment, but I could smell it when I opened up the gaps in the clap-board: that smell of poverty mixed with entitlement; rotten junk-food and cat hoards.  No wonder the tenants lived on the front porch even though it was falling in. I didn't want to tell her she was sinking money into a property she was never going to sell, but I did try and hint by refusing to paint their front door.  The smell that wafted out was unblocked by carbon filters. It was a monument to filth and hopeless laziness, subsidized by the taxpayer of course. 

But all that was ahead of me, for the moment I was marveling at the way the back fence managed to stay upright, buried under a small landfill from the house behind it. The one side didn't need a fence, a structurally unsound garage of ancient cinder-blocks finished it off, complete with wavy antique glass windows in the process of being squeezed out of their sashes by... what the hell?  The whole side of the garage just disappeared into solid bark! One of the biggest trunks I've ever seen was hiding in plain sight, so huge it didn't register in the brain.  A god of the forest, the last elder of it's kind, an anachronism of stunning dimensions slumbered there in that corner. The branches lifted out of the filth and cat-spray into another world it had created for itself, like looking up through a portal to the past the canopy went on and on; four or five full-grown trees compressed and suspended somehow. This would have been the altar of my ancestors, the kind of behemoth human and animal blood nourished on sacred days appointed by the cycles of sun and moon.

She noticed me marveling at it and asked if by any chance I knew of a tree-guy crazy enough to take it down as the house was on the market and it might devalue the property. I could see why, any one of those limbs would have made toothpicks of her shabby slum dwelling. Then again, it was so much older than the house I guess it would have crushed it already if it was liable to shed itself in that direction. She wanted the city to come and chop it, but didn't really know whose property it was on, being in fact on the junction of four individual yards. Maybe that's why it was spared: a useful marker of territory in the beginning, and someone else's problem later.  It was a lucky tree indeed, not near any power lines and not rooting into the water system so it could grow and grow without the protection of any societal taboo. Certainly this Prius-driving lady of liberal pretensions was not about to save that old mammoth; her environmentalism didn't apply to her own property, only to her ideas about what other people should do or be forced to do. 

The groves of ancient times were often spared because they were sacred. Even invading armies tread on thin ice if they invaded their shade with the ax to build their siege weapons and stockades. The great pillars of cedar that constituted the halls of Carthaginian power were signs not just of the builder's craftsmanship, but the patience and plenty which allowed them to wax inch by tedious inch.  They didn't have a word for environmentalism or conservation, but they respected the meaning and the mystery of the wood. Indeed, the primeval forest was not always a pleasant place for the human imagination: it was full of darkness and savagery as well as beauty.  Yet, it endured until the age of modernity.

Now we have "environmentalism," which is often just another excuse for man-made destruction. My favorite tree on Westcott St. gave me bushels of apples every year which I made pie out of even though it was right next to a parking-lot and probably toxic.  There it had stood for at least a hundred years producing food, until federal dollars came down for the "Save the Rain" initiative and Norm Roth cashed-in. He did put some porous brick on the edging and plenty of gravel underneath, but alas all the trees that had shaded the walk throughout my youth were sacrificed, including our apple-giver. 

Thus is progress made in "saving the environment."

But what exactly is the environment? Is it some objective state of being, frozen in time?  A certain quantity of water that once flowed down the valleys and into the river and Onondaga lake, now altered by the addition of asphalt and shingles? Are we doomed to this unending quest to restore that which we cannot ever restore, to recreate a past that is simply gone? We go about trying to recreate the past by destroying the last vestiges of it. 

Yes, I miss my shabby city, lit by the humming yellow sodium lights.  Sure it turned the sky an apocalyptic shade of orange/purple on cloudy nights, but one could walk among the streets for hours and ease the mind in the gloom.  If it didn't fit the rust-belt scenery quite as prefect as the old oil lamps, at least it was better than this newly-installed hell of high-powered LED clusters that light everything up like a prison-yard.  Say good-bye to the gentle breeze coming in on a a summer night through the sighing trees: anything less than black-out curtains and one feels as if a spotlight is on your bed.  Blue/white radiation bathes everything in toxic frequencies that cause insomnia in humans and does who-knows-what to anything unfortunate enough to live outdoors. They're dangerous too. You can't even tell when a car is coming since their headlights are the same white and about as bright. They may be killing the insects of by droves and birds are getting noticeably scarcer, but by golly they are so damn energy-efficient!

Another human-made environmental catastrophe has come to Syracuse, just like humans usually do when they try their hand at terraforming. We forget the lesson of the Hawaiian islands, the ships that brought the rats, the snakes that were introduced to kill them, the mongoose that were shipped-in to kill them, who of course just feasted on the eggs of unique birds species instead. Our obsession with energy may be based on real concerns about coal or nuclear, but do we really want to sacrifice the great predatory birds to the windmills? At least it distracts us from the actual destruction going on around us and is always a good excuse for higher taxes. 

We can't turn back the clock, we have to make value judgments about the world we want to live in.  The concept of nature as something separate and distinct from the humans who live a fence-hop away is as irrational as the ancient worship of the great oak, and far more destructive. 

So I thought of these things as I rested beneath that gnarled trunk landed there like a time-traveler, in wonder that the new scene before it is in fact the same place. I remember the first time I really began to question my lifelong devotion to the ideology called "environmentalism," the first time I considered that maybe it was something very different from my love of "nature." I was watching some HD nature doc in Africa that was following a herd of elephants as they marched through the vast desert of some fenced-in park reserved for them, or "the wild" as we call it. It was a large park, but becoming drier, and the producers laid on the climate change guilt as thick as possible, too thick indeed.  One of the baby elephants was wobbling on it's feet and finally collapsed in the dust, it's mother pleading with her trunk for it continue.  Not this time, the sad music played as she finally, after agonizing hours, had to leave the poor endangered beast to die of thirst. 

This was meant to affect me emotionally, meant to move me to donate to the climate cause, to contribute to the preservation of more wild places (presumably with some water in them), to bring home the reality that this species could be lost forever due to human indifference. But I also knew that there was a film crew standing there the whole time, gallons of water at hand, and more a short drive away.  Of course, they couldn't intervene and save the baby, no no! That wouldn't be "natural." I remember an earlier documentary when a baby elephant drowned in a mud pit despite the mother's valiant efforts and how my own mother told me that the film-makers had to stand aside even though they could have hauled it up with their Jeep, sort of like the Prime Directive in Star Trek.  It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if they actually had that classic scene in mind when they filmed the latter-day baby elephant doing the opposite of drowning. 

This time I felt differently.  I don't see anything natural about the way those elephants are living. Now I know some other facts about elephants, for instance their memory is extraordinarily accurate.  They are able to map out watering holes thousands of miles apart.  They probably knew where the water was, but it's not in the park because the humans are using it. The park is just a larger cage for an animal designed to travel so far, and the documentary crew is just exploiting their pain for eco-dollars. We could actually just bring elephants to where the water is, say Florida or another politically stable environment where they could be bred for their ivory.  They wouldn't know the difference and their species could be saved.  But that wouldn't be "natural." It's not just the ivory poachers profiting from the beast's torment. 

The environmental movement is like me coming into that backyard and not even noticing the largest tree in the city sitting right there. Maybe it's time to ditch the whole philosophy and start integrating ourselves into nature in a more selfish way. We humans are good at shaping nature in the ways that we like it, but leaving it alone is not only a failure ecologically, it goes against our nature. We may plant two trees for every beauty we chop down, but until the groves are sacred once again I do not think they will be safe.