As the 100yr anniversary of WWI nears
we can be sure to hear all the familiar platitudes about Americans
defending freedom against aggression from our domestic media. Other
nations will have plenty of cum laudes to heap upon themselves and
everyone agrees that there is a wealth of personal heroism and
sacrifice to celebrate. This is about all that the involved nations
agree upon as they each have their own ideas of what exactly caused
this dreadful conflict and who we can blame for it. It is somewhat
incredible that such a vitally important event (many even blame it
for WWII) could still after all these years defy explanation. It
seems obvious that the main impediment to finding common ground is
the continued necessity of using the Great War to support
nationalistic narratives that have become essential to political
ideologies. Untangling these threads is essential to understanding
what went wrong with civilization and how to stop anything like it
from happening again.
A short piece in the WSJ illustrated some of the problems in setting down a comprehensive narrative that all the nations participating in the commemoration can agree upon, although they have all concurred that the message should be one of European “friendship and unity.” Serbians don't want to accept their share of the blame, Flanders is showboating to gain credentials as a principality worthy of independence, Germany is supposedly ignoring the event (I can't imagine why), Bosnian nationalists are praising Ferdinan's assassin as a hero, and the British have an internal struggle over whether to lionize or excoriate their generals. The succession of events that lead to the worst conflict ever seen on the planet are notoriously complex and many of the volatile issues then remain so now. Let us try and use the occasion to make explicit what the key factors were, politically, technologically, and psychologically. It may be that this inquiry is just as relevant today as it was 100 years ago. We would like to believe that this sort of thing can no longer happen on such a brutal scale, looking perhaps to the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) as a nuclear shield. Though it seems to be unlikely that any rational leader would initiate such a conflict, this certitude is no reason to become mentally lethargic and not seek other solutions, especially if we want to see a nuke-free planet.
On the technological advances that made WWI possible there is a wide concurrence of opinion. German military successes against France in the 1800s made it apparent that strategic changes would have to be made in any country that wanted to have a chance on the modern battlefield. Regarding the new German tactics Carroll Quigley writes: “ Moltke's great contribution was to be found in the fact that, by using the railroad and the telegraph, he was able to merge mobilization and attack into a single operation so that the final concentration of his forces took place in the enemy country, practically on the battlefield itself, just before contact with the main enemy forces took place.” In the age of mass armies the side that could launch an offensive on the partially-mobilized forces of the foe would have a clear advantage. Mobilization became practically equivalent to invasion and the ability to move from a state of armed crisis back to peace was hampered by the limits of communications and the necessity for detailed plans of an offensive nature. Echoes of this problem can be seen in today's headlines with NATO crying foul-play over Russian military exercises near the Ukrainian border in Europe, while in Asia North Korea complains about the stress the South's maneuvers are placing on their own army. In today's world a military training exercise can be turned into an offensive, resulting in armies training for war against each other at the same time on the same border; in the pre-1914 world this would not have been possible without actual invasions taking place since they lacked the flexibility of modern forces.
A short piece in the WSJ illustrated some of the problems in setting down a comprehensive narrative that all the nations participating in the commemoration can agree upon, although they have all concurred that the message should be one of European “friendship and unity.” Serbians don't want to accept their share of the blame, Flanders is showboating to gain credentials as a principality worthy of independence, Germany is supposedly ignoring the event (I can't imagine why), Bosnian nationalists are praising Ferdinan's assassin as a hero, and the British have an internal struggle over whether to lionize or excoriate their generals. The succession of events that lead to the worst conflict ever seen on the planet are notoriously complex and many of the volatile issues then remain so now. Let us try and use the occasion to make explicit what the key factors were, politically, technologically, and psychologically. It may be that this inquiry is just as relevant today as it was 100 years ago. We would like to believe that this sort of thing can no longer happen on such a brutal scale, looking perhaps to the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) as a nuclear shield. Though it seems to be unlikely that any rational leader would initiate such a conflict, this certitude is no reason to become mentally lethargic and not seek other solutions, especially if we want to see a nuke-free planet.
On the technological advances that made WWI possible there is a wide concurrence of opinion. German military successes against France in the 1800s made it apparent that strategic changes would have to be made in any country that wanted to have a chance on the modern battlefield. Regarding the new German tactics Carroll Quigley writes: “ Moltke's great contribution was to be found in the fact that, by using the railroad and the telegraph, he was able to merge mobilization and attack into a single operation so that the final concentration of his forces took place in the enemy country, practically on the battlefield itself, just before contact with the main enemy forces took place.” In the age of mass armies the side that could launch an offensive on the partially-mobilized forces of the foe would have a clear advantage. Mobilization became practically equivalent to invasion and the ability to move from a state of armed crisis back to peace was hampered by the limits of communications and the necessity for detailed plans of an offensive nature. Echoes of this problem can be seen in today's headlines with NATO crying foul-play over Russian military exercises near the Ukrainian border in Europe, while in Asia North Korea complains about the stress the South's maneuvers are placing on their own army. In today's world a military training exercise can be turned into an offensive, resulting in armies training for war against each other at the same time on the same border; in the pre-1914 world this would not have been possible without actual invasions taking place since they lacked the flexibility of modern forces.
Alliances evolved to reflect the
dangerous state of affairs. With offensive action holding such a
prominent place in their playbooks the signal for one nation to
mobilize meant that all their allies also began to carry out their
own offensive mobilizations. Quigley again: “It encouraged
extremism, because a country with allies would be bolder than a
country with no allies, and because allies in the long run did not
act to restrain one another.” The vital alliances could only be
maintained by giving wholehearted military support to one conflict or
another, eventually this support was bound to be forthcoming at a
synchronistic moment, as it did in 1914, even if political solutions
were available.
Another aggravating factor was the mass-media's new role in democratic regimes. Nationalistic feeling combined with cut-throat politics to hand election victories to demagogues of violence who displayed no qualities of dithering weakness for their domestic rivals to harp on. There were also increasing numbers of topics for discord among nations that had to become politically involved in commerce to compete in a global economy. Technologically, economically and politically humankind was obviously at its apex, but the great achievement of humanity were turning ugly and no one could agree why. Industrialization had already produced massive gains for the urbanites while it penetrated and destroyed localized old-school economies. The idealism of the previous century had whet the appetite of the industrialized world to reap the benefits that technology could offer in dominating the undeveloped world; in particular the rise of Germany and her attempt to establish colonies was destructive to the balance of power. Between the rise of Germany as an economic powerhouse, the fall of the Ottoman system, and the new economic perogatives in foreign policy; the tensions became more and more polarizing. Eventually France and Britain decided to work out their colonial differences so that France could focus on German power at home while the British could try and stamp out the emerging naval and colonial power of the Germans. Thus were the lines drawn.
Another aggravating factor was the mass-media's new role in democratic regimes. Nationalistic feeling combined with cut-throat politics to hand election victories to demagogues of violence who displayed no qualities of dithering weakness for their domestic rivals to harp on. There were also increasing numbers of topics for discord among nations that had to become politically involved in commerce to compete in a global economy. Technologically, economically and politically humankind was obviously at its apex, but the great achievement of humanity were turning ugly and no one could agree why. Industrialization had already produced massive gains for the urbanites while it penetrated and destroyed localized old-school economies. The idealism of the previous century had whet the appetite of the industrialized world to reap the benefits that technology could offer in dominating the undeveloped world; in particular the rise of Germany and her attempt to establish colonies was destructive to the balance of power. Between the rise of Germany as an economic powerhouse, the fall of the Ottoman system, and the new economic perogatives in foreign policy; the tensions became more and more polarizing. Eventually France and Britain decided to work out their colonial differences so that France could focus on German power at home while the British could try and stamp out the emerging naval and colonial power of the Germans. Thus were the lines drawn.
The cumulative psychological impact of
the many changes facing the world had a poisonous effect on
leadership. War seemed so inevitable that the real question was only
“when?” As Quigley says, “The success of Bizmark's policy of
'blood and iron' tended to justify the use of force and intimidation
in international affairs, and to distort the role of diplomacy so
that the old type of diplomacy began to disappear. Instead of a
discussion between gentlemen to find a workable solution, diplomacy
became an effort to show the opposition how strong one was in...
Metternich's old definition, that 'a diplomat was a man who never
permitted himself the pleasure of a triumph,' became lost
completely.” The prevailing mood of diplomatic “desperation”
caused leaders to value a strong first-strike on an unprepared enemy
to become more tempting than working things out at the conference
table, since war would come what may.
Any person's analysis of what exactly
was the chief problem in this period says a lot about what their
particular world-view happens to be. The world before the war can be
compared to the ida of a “state of nature” of early political
theory. Exactly what this state of nature was before political
activity began determines the proper role of the state in the
present. If we believe that this natural state was one of brutal
conflict we shall accept the rule of a monarch as a lesser evil as
Hobbes said. If we are nostalgic for nature, as Locke was, then the
government must take on a minimalist approach. In the current
discussion, whatever problems lead to WWI will most likely be blamed
for present ills too. Did global capitalism reach the point of kill
or be killed? Did bankers hijack the policies of England? Was it
actually a manifestation of racial hatreds or religious differences?
My own opinion tends towards 'all of
the above” in this case. I think that historical analyses
generally miss the mark by emphasizing one influence too highly over
all the others. The flaw with the world-view that tries to minimize
the faults to one specific area or another is that they do not grasp
the full complexity of the developed world at that stage. Rather
than looking at pre-war times as a less-developed stage of
civilization I would argue that the world has in some ways been in
stasis. The problems that led to the first world war are the same
problems we face today, more or less. The 1800s were more modern
than we usually realize and closer to today than we like to admit.
Much of the technological foundation for modernity was already
well-established even if it existed side-by-side with almost medieval
ways of life. The rapid growth of American industry in the last
century disguises this fact for U.S. Americans; we haven't been
witness to the slow but steady displacement of the donkey by the car,
rather we had the post-war capital at hand to rapidly achieve
first-world living conditions.
To see an illustration of what I mean
look at the sequential rapidity of the two world wars. Although
Europe was ravaged and progress was immeasurably retarded by the
destruction that began in 1914 and the ensuing recession, we can
still see that the standard of living in 1930s Europe was relatively
advanced. That France and Germany were both able to generate massive
military machines in such a short time speaks volumes about pre-war
conditions. The relevant period of technological growth is quite
long, but our appreciation of it is distorted by the fact that we
undervalue 19th
century technology even though it was extremely effective.
The “Agricultural
Revolution” is one such technological development of great
significance for understanding today's economic and political system.
The ability to produce food for urban dwellers with a smaller
agricultural labor force had several major impacts other than simply
“allowing” cities to grow; along with specialization of the
educated classes was a despecialization of the rural communities who
had used their personal talents for subsidiary incomes. The new
proletariat was not just unskilled people, it was also people whose
skills were no longer needed. Pressured by lower commodity prices
and mass-produced goods, the farmers could not hold on to what land
they had gained since serfdom ended. The countries that had a longer
period of time to evolve a skilled non-serf farmer handi-crafter
class were the ones that gained the most capital from the
concentration (or re-concentration) of land as the exodus to the
cities intensified. Germany is a partial exception because they
happened to have a knack for machines and the Jewish communities were
a ripe fruit for liquidation into war-capital.
New divisions of
land created new societal problems in each country that followed a
model of westernization. There is no such thing as a farm-owner (or
serf) not having anything to do, but now machines had created legions
of unemployed. One way to alleviate this is by colonizing, but the
more practical solution is usually to find foreign markets for
surplus goods. The London-based exchange network was extremely
effective at balancing out trade deficits, but in the end the
deflationary trend of the gold-standard caused recurrent banking
crises. Quigley explains:
“Another paradox of banking practice arose from the fact that bankers, who loved deflation, often acted in an inflationary manner from their eagerness to lend money at interest. Since they make money out of loans, they are eager to increase the amount of bank credit on loan. But this is inflationary. The conflict between the deflationary ideas and inflationary practices of bankers had profound repercussions on business. The bankers made loans to business so that the volume of money increased faster than the increase in goods. The result was inflation. When this became clearly noticeable, the bankers would flee to notes or specie by curtailing credit and raising discount rates. This was beneficial to bankers in the short run (since it allowed them to foreclose on collateral held for loans), but it could be disastrous to them in the long run (by forcing the value of the collateral below the amount of the loans it secured). But such bankers' deflation was destructive to business and industry in the short run as well as the long run,”
“Another paradox of banking practice arose from the fact that bankers, who loved deflation, often acted in an inflationary manner from their eagerness to lend money at interest. Since they make money out of loans, they are eager to increase the amount of bank credit on loan. But this is inflationary. The conflict between the deflationary ideas and inflationary practices of bankers had profound repercussions on business. The bankers made loans to business so that the volume of money increased faster than the increase in goods. The result was inflation. When this became clearly noticeable, the bankers would flee to notes or specie by curtailing credit and raising discount rates. This was beneficial to bankers in the short run (since it allowed them to foreclose on collateral held for loans), but it could be disastrous to them in the long run (by forcing the value of the collateral below the amount of the loans it secured). But such bankers' deflation was destructive to business and industry in the short run as well as the long run,”
The inevitable
reaction to the increasingly unstable cycles of finance was nostalgia
for the past; this manifested in nationalism, a sort of prequel to
the idealization of pre-WWI days in the modern era. While we bicker
in the present about what made life so great before the calamity of
war shattered it, at the turn of the century the debate over “what
went wrong” had a more geographical character. No one could say
precisely why they thought things had been better before the
small-timers were liquidated into capital for industrial investment;
however that may be, there was a mistrust of technology and a
reversion to racial idealization. If only the border of the state
could return to the glory days and racial unity restored the good
times would come again. This retreat into semi-racist ideology seems
repugnant and illogical to we who were raised on slogans of “Never
Again,” but in reality it is only another permutation of the
attempt to understand why technological progress is not the boon we
think it should be. Although the Romantic ethos survives where
nationalism has (hopefully) fallen, the general revolt against
modernity has common origins with our own societies struggle to come
to grips with the prosperity and catastrophe of the last 200 years or
so. Nationalism sought to reassert the individual by creating a
closed sphere of blood-tied citizens who could fulfill their egoistic
self-interest in common, this paradox being supposedly smoothed over
by vague notions of racial harmony.
This
closed system resembles the dream of the U.S.S.R. and other socialist
republics that believed they could realize their Utopia within the
relatively closed circle of the revolutionary regimes, or at least
that they could survive and thrive just long enough for the “rot”
to spread to other barrels. But the communists were driven to this
isolation by the victory of fascism in some countries and
Anglo-American capitalism (or both) in others, both being by-products
of nationalism. The original international communist movement was
another attempt to make sense of history as a class struggle with a
predictable trajectory that required industrialization so that the
machines would grind down the cost of labor to virtually nothing.
They were aware that the Romantics were aristocratic in nature and
that their revolt against reason would only lead to a new formulation
of capitalism with a totalitarian flavor. The capitalism that was
produced had much in common with socialism, it was not based on
conventional economic rules and did provide relief for the
underclasses; this was seen as a way to preserve what was good from
the past while improving it with controlled technology.
The application of
technology was a more contentious subject then than it is today
(outside of hippy circles), it created divisions among classes that
we tend to think of a being normally allied. The trade-unions had
been invested in slowing the pace of technological implementation for
years. They recognized that their specialized skills, which set them
apart from low-wage laborers, would no longer matter if the gadgets
were allowed to replace human skill as the most important factor in
production. Set against the trade-unions (the petit bourgois) was
the communist movement; they were the creation of the concentration
of land ownership and the natural desire of business to drive down
labor costs through competition for unskilled jobs. The concept of
universal solidarity between skilled and unskilled labor was
producing international organizations at odds with “national
socialism,” the veneer of fascism. These anarchists and communists
were sometimes quite violent and raised the fear of chaos in pre-war
Europe at a time when statesmen should have been fearing organized
warfare more. The Spanish Civil War even brought England into naval
actions against the anarchists on the side of fascism, elucidating
one of the reasons fascism was able to take hold int he first place:
the Western Democracies were willing to tolerate it as long as its
violence was directed against the frightening forces of populist
organization.
For centuries political thinkers had developed various philosophies with the intention of showing how the “state of nature” in which man interacted with other men sans the law, was properly replaced by a “social contract” of various forms depending on which type of government was favored by the philosopher. They all seemed to admit that the state of nature was better overall than the state of civilization, but the goal was to prove that law was a necessary evil. Whether or not humans ever did exist without some kind of government, and what this existence looked like, was conceded to be a mystery, but it was clear that once government did arise there would be no choice for communities other than to form one themselves in order to have efficient self-defense. This is the most common complaint leveled against the Spanish anarchists: their disorganization was such a detriment to the war against Franco that the Communist/Liberal government had to fight them first before they could launch a reasonable assault. They also hoped for aid from France or Britain seeing as they had a common foe, but they did not properly estimate the degree to which they themselves were a common foe as well. If the anarchists had not been betrayed and had won their war it would have caused not just political upheaval, but also philosophical realignment. Only strong modern states were supposed to be able to fight other strong modern states, without this justification who knows how far anarchism might have spread?
For centuries political thinkers had developed various philosophies with the intention of showing how the “state of nature” in which man interacted with other men sans the law, was properly replaced by a “social contract” of various forms depending on which type of government was favored by the philosopher. They all seemed to admit that the state of nature was better overall than the state of civilization, but the goal was to prove that law was a necessary evil. Whether or not humans ever did exist without some kind of government, and what this existence looked like, was conceded to be a mystery, but it was clear that once government did arise there would be no choice for communities other than to form one themselves in order to have efficient self-defense. This is the most common complaint leveled against the Spanish anarchists: their disorganization was such a detriment to the war against Franco that the Communist/Liberal government had to fight them first before they could launch a reasonable assault. They also hoped for aid from France or Britain seeing as they had a common foe, but they did not properly estimate the degree to which they themselves were a common foe as well. If the anarchists had not been betrayed and had won their war it would have caused not just political upheaval, but also philosophical realignment. Only strong modern states were supposed to be able to fight other strong modern states, without this justification who knows how far anarchism might have spread?
The
fall of Russia to revolutionaries during WWI has a similar influence
in the basic world-view as passed down to us today. Thus embarked an
era of experimentation in rationalistic communism as a solution to
the system that had created such wars and modern nightmares. Whether
this experiment or the US American experiment is the way to go has no
been determined by force of arms yet, but the possibility of a sequel
to the Great Wars is the backdrop psychologically of any attempt to
understand the past or the future. As long as Mutual Assured
Destruction is maintained we don't have to worry about that
eventuality too much, energy can instead be focused into fixing the
real issues that made WWI (and II by default) practically inevitable.
Although the details have changed, the tendencies that made peace
difficult can be observed in today's economics and politics. I
have to recommend both Quigley's Tragedy and Hope and
Russell's A History of Western Philosophy to get a sense of
some of the issues that are recurring a hundred years later.
Both men wrote based on their experience of living through the
periods, Russell during the 2nd War; maybe this is why his arguments
for a world government are so compelling.